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Climate change challenges scientists from many disciplines to accurately assess the current state of the Earth, predict possible scenarios, and develop effective solutions. Data collected through a variety of tools, such as environmental monitoring and laboratory and field experiments, have enabled scientists to answer critical questions through mathematical model simulations. However, these predictions come with uncertainties that are difficult to communicate to the public and policy makers. This affects credibility and limits the acceptance of research in decision-making processes.In this seminar we will first discuss different definitions, sources and consequences of uncertainty in the context of modelling environmental challenges, as well as research about uncertainty in individual and political decision making. In the second part of the course, we will apply this knowledge in expert talks, field trips and case study analyses: Experts in the field of environmental science who are using different approaches to study the impacts of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems will share their expertise and insights on the topic. Moreover, we will use data from a local forest monitoring station to predict the effects of temperature and drought conditions on forest structure and function. We will interpret and discuss the results, considering the limitations and pitfalls of the modeling approach, as well as perspectives for their communication. Attendance is mandatory in this course. In accordance with RPTU policy, students may have a maximum of two absences or miss up to four class hours (4 × 45 minutes). |
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